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Eurozone: favorable economic conditions in 2016
In a context marked by a dichotomy of economic and monetary policy rates, it should be the only one able to surprise positively this year. The change in continuity. It is in these terms that the year ahead could be summed up. Because the main factors that characterized the macroeconomic environment last year should still be topical this year. The cycle that the world economy is going through is characterized by a synchronization in growth rates between regions. On the one hand, China has focused in recent years on developing its services at the expense of its industry. This mutation resulted in a GDP growth of 6.9% last year, its lowest level in 25 years. In addition, shortness of Chinese motor, the main consumer of raw materials, some emerging countries depend impacts the economic health of these. More generally, "the end of a global industry aggregation period results in a deceleration of international trade now believes less rapidly than global GDP," said Jean-Charles Mériaux, management director at DNCA Finance.
In contrast, developed countries are part of an expansion phase. Including the United States where the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December, turned the page of the financial crisis by raising its key interest rates for the first time in nine years. However, the health of the US economy should not obscure its weak industrial activity suffering from a strong dollar. In Europe - as in Japan - the situation is different but nonetheless encouraging. Strong launch in March of monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB), the euro area enjoys favorable conditions for its recovery. "Interest rates converge both for states and businesses, says Jean-Charles Mériaux. The credit was revived in most countries and the decline of the euro combined with falling oil prices will continue to produce positive effects for the competitiveness of companies and the purchasing power of consumers. "
Inevitably, this environment will be the backdrop of increased divergence in monetary policies. While the Fed will continue raising interest rates, which will mechanically strengthen the dollar, the Chinese authorities should continue to reduce their and gradually devalue the yuan to stimulate their economies. These prospects contrast with those that are emerging in Europe where the ECB announced on the occasion of its meeting the strengthening of its monetary facilitation measures to increase loans granted to households and businesses. It provides, among other things, lowering a key interest rates at 0%, extending the amount and scope of the asset purchase program and a further decline in deposit rate - 0.4%. "Between the US monetary tightening and uncertainty over Chinese growth, the euro area is the only one that can positively surprise this year," concludes that sense Jean-Charles Mériaux.
Citizen movements are launching "the primary of the French"
The poll, which aims to nominate one person from civil society in the presidential election of 2017 will be held in autumn 2016. Neither left nor right nor center! The primary launched by six movements that claim to be "citizens" must appoint a candidate from civil society, and especially not the parties. "78% of French say they would vote for a candidate that is neither from nor supported by any political party," remind the organizers of the initiative, citing a survey. To prevent the parties monopolize again the power illegitimately, the party of Corinne Lepage, Cap21 / Citizen Rally, We citizens (Nicolas Doucerain) citizens Generation (Jean-Marie Cavada), Blue-White Zebra (Alexander Garden), the transition (Claude Posternak) and civic Covenant (Jean-Baptiste de Foucauld) took the initiative to organize the vote.
It is still minimal then go click that shakes ass
If they recognize "sometimes yelling," these presidents movement have managed to form a common front at 13 months of the presidential election. They hope "to make the election his first and initial ambition meaning" facing the party primaries "which represent more than themselves." What are the terms of this primary held in the fall? "We'll see when 500,000 French have clicked laprimairedesfrancais.fr. It is still minimal then go click that shakes ass! exclaims Alexandre Jardin. To be a presidential candidate, you have the sponsorship of 500 mayors. But one could consider that the 500,000 citizens also permitted. "
We do not want the market promise
The result is, for now, a mystery. "This will make things possible, it is the first step. Phase 2 will be announced after you. It does not want the promise of the market, "says Corinne Lepage. Applicants must submit to a "eligibility charter" special, namely: Still, the representatives of these movements present at the launch press conference of the primary citizen does not really reflect the diversity of French civil society. Corinne Lepage is the only woman. And she's MEP. Others are white, between 40 and 76, and come from a rather easy social environment. When we pointed this inventory to Alexander Garden, he cites the names of "zebras" he hired prospecting in all France and who represent, according to him, the company "Sallem Riyadh, champion Paralympic World, one of the greatest leaders the valid interest in the world of the disabled, Trellu- Marie Kane, founder of Unis-Cité, Paul Benoit, Polytechnique, company founder Qarnot, which recycles the energy produced by computers to heat radiators ... "
This is a survey done on Monday morning, one of the British tabloids and is seen as "very worrying" by Trevor Philips, the former head of the Commission for Equality in the UK. According to the ICM institute, the opinion of the English Muslims differs widely from that of the rest of the population on issues of homosexuality or women's rights. 52% of respondents say Muslims and homosexual relationships should not be legal, while nearly half of those surveyed (47%) say that gays "should not be allowed to become teachers," according to the Guardian. Even more disturbing: 39% agree with the fact that "women should always obey their husbands." Finally, on the question of polygamy, nearly a third of respondents Muslims (31%) believe it is quite acceptable for a British Muslim to have more than one wife.
About jihad and Sharia law, opinions are more mixed. But the numbers are there still rather worrying. Nearly a quarter of those surveyed by ICM (23%) support the introduction of Sharia in specific locations in England and 4% say they understand people taking part in a kamikaze action. Speaking on Channel 4 in the documentary What really think Muslims, the pollster said that on a number of topics (family, sexuality, Jewish, violence and terrorism, etc.) the positions of Muslims were far from those of the rest of the population. "A Muslim in six states want to live further apart (non-Muslims, Ed)," he added. Enough for Trevor Phillips speaks of a "nation within a nation."
A broad sense of belonging to the nation
These figures should, however, be qualified by the very broad sense of the Muslims to the English nation (86% of respondents). 88% say and Britain is a good country for Muslims and 78% say they want to further integrate. Khalid Mahmood, Labour MP, prefers to remember these numbers, much less stigmatizing for the Muslim community. But he also believes that the community is still folded on itself since the 80s, but failed to better integrate. When asked by the Guardian, researchers also noted that the survey results would probably have been similar in many ways if the questions were addressed to Jews and Christians. Many intellectuals call in newspapers for a new policy in the UK. "The integration of British Muslims is probably the most difficult task that we face, says Trevor Phillips, according to comments reported by The Independent. This requires abandoning the warm water tap multiculturalism, still adored by some, and the adoption of a much more muscular approach to integration. "