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It is so far the loudest warning of an international organization: An EU exit Britain, the so-called Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union would cause "significant regional and global damage," said the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Already planned for 23 June referendum on British membership of the EU had "created uncertainty for investors," it said.
"It is difficult to see how that could be positive," said IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld. "A" Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union "could cause serious damage regionally and globally because it would disrupt established trade relations", Obstfeld said.
In the event of egress vote in the referendum of the British to a two-year long renegotiation marathon on future relations with the EU would join. This would have an "extended period of uncertainty" with corresponding effects on the markets for the episode.
The since the early 1970s, continuing trend that the UK more and more cooperating with the other European countries would be stopped. It would be surprising if the reduction of European integration would lead to new growth, Obstfeld said
lowered growth forecast
Partly because of Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-fear the IMF corrected also for the second time within a few months its forecast for world economic growth down. Global economic output is expected to grow this year instead of 3.4 only by 3.2 percent, in the next place by 3.6 to 3.5 percent. Whether that will actually be achieved is uncertain.
The reasons for that besides the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union debate in Europe and uncertainties such as the weakness of China or the refugee crisis. "The global recovery continues, but with an ever diminishing pace and always fragile," said IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld.
For Germany, the IMF had lowered its increased yet again in January expectations. He expects an increase in economic output of 1.5 percent this year and 1.6 percent next year - the same as for the euro zone. Thus, the previous forecasts were lowered by 0.2 and 0.1 points. Confident the IMF is now back on the Chinese economy, the which was measured by the purchasing power now the world's largest. You should at 6.5 percent this year and 6.2 next year be slightly higher than previously thought. For the United States has gone to 2.4 and 2.5 percent slightly downwards.
The risks have grown considerably overall. "The current downturn in the economic outlook and the associated downside risks require an immediate response," said chief economist Obstfeld. From politics he calls for expenditure and reforms that boost growth. Monetary policy must remain in the major industrialized countries on a loose course. Should a larger threat of deflation, Obstfeld advocates also facing the European Central Bank for additional measures. "However, monetary policy can not alone bear the burden of the challenges," warns Obstfeld. You should receive support - for example through a demand-promoting policies.
As risk, the IMF estimates that occur in the financial markets to more turbulence and the mood in a vicious circle could move down. In many industrialized countries, financing conditions have worsened despite a loose central bank policy. Uncertainties also came from any massive fluctuations in exchange rates, of a widespread reluctance to invest in oil and other commodity prices and the development in China.
Jan Böhmermann runs after the fuss about his "libelous poem" continues from the public: The production company btf GmbH and Jan Böhmermann have decided not to produce the planned for Thursday next edition of the satirical program "Neo Magazine Royale". This was confirmed by ZDF SPIEGEL. On Facebook, the program managers published a statement: The ZDF had placed himself on the side of Jan Böhmermann on Monday: "I am of course to the satire program to the presenters and to Mr. Böhmermann also," said the director Thomas Bellut. "I advocate that a small part of these longer satire show is not lifted. At the end of a program, by which you can judge either way remains."
Böhmermann had a poem about the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, entitled "defamatory" read on March 31 in "Neo Magazine Royale" in ZDFneo, but previously expressly pointed out that such a thing is not allowed in Germany. It contained numerous formulations aimed below the belt. Turkey is now demanding punishment of the moderator.
A few days ago Böhmermann had canceled his participation in the Grimme Prize after the advent of the discussion about the "libelous poem" where he should be awarded. His radio show "Soft & Carefully" was also not broadcast on Sunday. Yet on Monday had a Userin on Facebook asking if the recording of ZDFneo-satirical show will take place on Wednesday. "Neo Magazine Royale" replied then: "Why should not they be held?"
The Foreign Office in Berlin has confirmed that China has asked a representative of the German Embassy in Beijing to a Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Thus, the Chinese government protested against a statement by the G7 leading industrial nations to island dispute in the South China Sea. In it, the Secretary of State had called for a peaceful solution to the conflict.
At the Foreign Ministry, it was said at the appointment had been made very clear "that Germany is behind the joint G7 statement on maritime safety".
The G7 foreign ministers had been shown at the end of its deliberations on Monday in Japanese Hiroshima concerned about the tensions. Without China in particular to mention, rejected the G7 ministers decided any "intimidating, forcible or provocative unilateral actions" from which could change the status quo.
China argues with Japan to islands in the East China Sea. Also ensure its claims in the South China Sea tensions with the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan. In the sea areas in which crosses the US Navy, are natural resources and major shipping routes.
Beijing let aufschütten artificial islands and military facilities and runways built to substantiate his claims on this outpost. "So China is creating new facts and changes the status quo," it said diplomatic sources in Beijing. Recently, the US had accused China of having fighter jets stationed in the South China Sea.
The United States recognized Beijing's territorial claims back repeatedly. Washington accuses China of using the landfill to threaten the freedom of navigation in the region, passing through the one-third of global oil shipments. Beijing, in turn, accuses the US before a show of force in the Pacific. In fact, the Pentagon sent last warships in the area.